1QA Bold Picks

Each team has a results rating in points, from every FBS final. It is the results half of the Top 25. We leave the betting lines out of this number on purpose: Bold Picks are where the scoreboard and the line disagree.

Rating points aren't a game margin, so we calibrate them against the market. We took every line we stored this season (236 games) and fit: line ≈ 0.74 × (home rating − away rating) + 5.3 for home field (0 at a neutral site). The fit misses the line by 8.8 points on a typical game.

The rating we use: the results-only rating (scores, nothing else).

We compare our number with the line on this week's Picks board. Only gaps of 3 to 10 points count. A bigger gap means our model is missing something, so we skip it. The 3 biggest gaps are the picks against the line. The outright pick is the biggest upset we see, or, if we see none, the favorite we like most among lines of 7 or less.

Picks freeze the moment the post is drafted. We grade against that frozen line, never a later one.